Año 1997, Número 11 – 63-71

Año 1997, Número 11 – 63-71

Ehrhardt, N.M.; Legault, C.; Prenski, L.B. 1997.  Sobre los conceptos de utilización de biomasas excedentes de merluza de cola (Macruronus magellanicus) bajo esquemas de administración pesquera basadas en F 0,1 and F 30%RDP.
Rev. Invest. Desarr. Pesq., 11: 63-71.
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In this work we present a process of risk analysis related to the adoption of a Total Allowable Catch (TAC) based in series of allowable biological catches which contain uncertainty derived of the recruitment patterns which characterize the stock. With the information obtained by the F 0,1 and F30%RDP, the exploitation ratio and with the 500 values of the projected biomass of 1995 obtained by Monte Carlo simulation, we calculate the distribution of the allowable biological catches under a scheme of F 0,1 and F30% RDP and for a natural mortality of 0.38. The selected TAC is expected to be as closer as possible to the reference fishery mortality F0,1 and F30%RDP. As a result of the present risk analysis in this study in Macruronus magellanicus of the SW Atlantic, we consider that if the concept of F0,1 is adopted for 1995 TAC, then it should be chosen in a rank of allowable biological catches under 112000ton, because from that level onwards exists more than 70% of probability that the TAC exceed the F0,1.  From the other side, if we accept the criteria of F30%RDP, then the 1995 TAC, should be less than 152000ton because from that level onwards exists more than 70% of probability that the TAC exceeds the values of F30%RDP.